Brett Myers-Staff Ace?

June 5, 2006

Brett Myers is unquestionably the ace of an otherwise mediocre Phillies staff. That being said, none of Myers numbers really jump out except for his era.

Take a look at Myers era graph at Fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs%5C962_pitcher_season_1_full_20060604.png

Now take a look at his strikeouts

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs%5C962_pitcher_season_2_full_20060604.png

Myers' strikeout to walk ratio has also gone down, from 3.06:1 last year, to 2.44:1. Should we be worried about his declining strikeout rate? Probably. This is always a bad sign. Myers is allowing more flyballs this year than last, but more of these have been staying inside the park: his homeruns allowed are down from 1.30 to 1.12 per nine innings.

Actually, the remarkable thing about Myers is how just above average he is in just about every category. Checking through the fangraphs list, Myers is just above good in almost everything, and great in nothing in per se. This probably won't lead to long term dominance (and is probably at least a partial corallary to his high number of no decisions. He pitches well, but not well enough to win it on his own). His FIP is 4.23, virtually unchanged from last season, and well over his current era. Whether or not his ERA comes back to earth probably will depend on his strikeout rate. If Myers gets his strikeout rate back up, and keeps his home runs down, we may be seeing the makings of a real ace.

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