2007 Academy Award projections

January 14, 2007

i’m not actually going to post the column i teased earlier because i want to get this information out before the golden globes. looong time readers (and people who know me in real life) might remember that my friend nathan and i are trying to watch every single best picture and director nominee ever. so far we’ve seen (or re-seen) the last 15 years worth. now, i like to see as many of these as possible in the theater, so i always go see the “favorites” and usually end up having seen a few. this year, i’ve belatedly tried to be a little more scientific.

i did a study of the following academy awards precursors to see how they fared against the actual nominees over the last ten years: golden globes, sag ensemble, dga, pga, wga (only the winners), afi top-10, nyfcc, lafca, and bfcc. i calculated the percentage of each awards success rate, and assigned the values to each of this year’s favorites (e.g. any movie nominated for any of these). the higher the value, the bigger the favorite.

there are obviously many limitations. each organization considers and lists different numbers of films, and i haven’t done any sort of weighting (obviously, guild awards would get priority over critics.) i also have not included any magazine predictions. off the top of my head, i know that entertainment weekly is very good, and i imagine others are good too.

this list is still preliminary. the gg winners aren’t out (this is especially important for the comedy category; being nominated for comedy has very little correlation to academy nomination, but winning is significant), neither are the PGA, or WGA. but as of right now here are the top 10 movies.

1) Departed-3.135

2) Babel-2.595

3) Dreamgirls-2.286

4) Little Miss Sunshine-2.286

5) The Queen-1.429

6) Letters from Iwo Jima-1.26

7) Bobby-1.256

8. United 93-1.16

9) Borat-.7

10)Devil Wears Prada -.7

the top 5 match up to the DGA picks which have been right the last 4 years. Bobby scores much higher than critical esteem would place it, although that is largely the result of its SAG nomination (the weakest of the guilds). the queen scores a bit lower than i would have thought. it was the best reviewed movie of the year, and i haven’t accounted for many critics groups. it also barely lost nyfcc to united 93. flipping that result would have the queen comfortably in, and United 93 out of contention.

I would have guessed that the DGA’s streak would end this year, with Babel being the most likely of the 5 not to make it (but definitely getting a best director nomination). all signs point to it getting the picture nomination, yet i don’t know anyone who saw it or talked about wanting to see it. i still wouldn’t be surprised if babel was left out in favor of clint.

letters probably needs to get the PGA nom to have a numerical shot. it’s not in globe contention, so tonight can’t help. letters seemed to peak at the right time, though as all of its hype was during the voting season. that could sway the actual results. still, i can’t help but think that letters is this years munich, which only appeared on the DGA radar (and i think entertainment weekly) and still won the nomination. i’ll update the rankings as news come in.

**UPDATED: I just saw that the EW picks are online. they went with the DGA and picked the top 5, so, as of now, no change, except it seems more and more unlikely that iwo gets a nom.

***UPDATED: Here are the changes to the leaderboard after the golden globes.

1) Babel-3.595

2) Departed-3.135

3) Dreamgirls-2.286

4) LMS-2.286

more updates after the PGA.

3 Responses to “2007 Academy Award projections”

  1. lpmandrake Says:

    That list is a pretty good summary of why I can’t bring myself to care about the academy awards anymore.

  2. dailysalad Says:

    i kind of agree. i thought this was a great year for movies, but two of the best movies i saw are nowhere near the top (pan’s labrynth and volver). and i know you’re a big children of men fan

  3. […] My gut told me all along that Iwo would find a way to make it, and that Greengrass would be the odd-man-in […]

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