Updated Oscar Projections

January 21, 2007

I added a number of awards to the algorithm (specifically, the NBR nominees and winners, golden globes foreign language winners, bonuses for gg winners, and BAFTA nominees) then added the results of the PGA to the chart.

Here’s the updated top-6

1. Babel-5.379

2. Little Miss Sunshine-5.09

3. Departed-4.919

4. Dreamgirls-3.609

5. The Queen-2.833

6. Letters from Iwo Jima-2.54

The top-5 match the PGA and DGA and Entertainment Weekly. Obviously my rankings could be wrong, as the Oscar balloting system is complex, and a movie could get in with a small but passionate base (1/6 +1 first place votes; probably how Munich snuck in), but it seems more and more unlikely that Iwo will be nominated. That leaves Clint as the favourite odd-man-in for Best Director which almost always goes 4/5 with BP nominees (sometimes 3/5. the obvious exception to this is last year, where, for the first time in over 20 years, the two categories lined up 5/5).

This might even be a year with 2 non-BP directors. United 93 is #7 on my list, and Greengrass may be awarded for his singular vision. Also one of the Spanish language directors may be nominated; Almodovar is an Academy favourite, and, like Greengrass, Del Toro’s auteurship may be recognized.

And in case anyone is interested, here were the 5 best awards eligible movies i saw last year.

1. Departed

2. United 93

3. Why We Fight

4. Volver

5. Little Miss Sunshine

Honourable mention: Borat, Cache (Hidden), Pan’s Labrynith

4 Responses to “Updated Oscar Projections”

  1. Isaac Says:

    Not a fan of the Good Shepherd? I’d vote for them all day long. By them I mean the Kingsmen, who perform brilliantly in their scene in that movie.

    Also, I thought Pan’s Labyrinth was great, but it’s also one of only 3 movies I’ve seen in over a year. Don’t take the kids though… Dark and depressing.

  2. Annie Says:

    I think that dreamgirls, while good, is overrated. It goes on a bit too long, and while the composer did a great job of capturing the musical style of the time, the songs aren’t musically very interesting/good, and almost always drag on too long.

    The costumes, however, once again prove why May Routh deserved her oscar for Memoirs of a Geisha. She manages to walk the line between historically accurate and stereotypical, putting together clothing that the character would conceivably wear, and recognizing that sometimes people wear stupid shit.

    Hopefully Ms. Routh is up again this year.

  3. dailysalad Says:

    memoirs of a geisha was the worst movie that members of the feminine persuasion have dragged me to. and i’m not one of these people who hates “lady pictures”–“in her shoes” was probably the saddest, most heartbreakingest movie ever. memoirs was very slow, tedious, and reactionary.
    that being said, it certainly had lavish production values, and the costumes were very very good. i actually think that period pieces have too much of an advantage in the costume category, and it would be nice to see someone rewarded for everyday fashion designing. it probably wont happen soon, but maybe some day.
    as for dreamgirls, i’m ashamed to say that i haven’t yet caught it. while i wile away too much time with movies, that’s one i’ve missed. i am making a point of seeing it soon, though

  4. Annie Says:

    Memoirs of a Geisha was described, by my cousin and by myself as “Stupid, but beautiful.”

    While I agree that period pieces have a leg up on costuming, in many cases they squander that advantage by using stereotypical costumes, and make everyone look the same. What “Geisha” did well was to create a personality for each character that was both historically accurate and individual.

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