2008 Watch: How Joe Biden Plans on Winning
January 30, 2007
We already know that Joe Biden will not be president, but that sure isn’t stopping him from running. In fact, he is so serious about running that he is declaring his candidacy for at least the fourth time on Wednesday. While he hasn’t explicitly said he’s “in to win” (nor repeated that fact constantly), surely he has some plan for victory. So how exactly is Biden’s madcap campaign going to get him over the top?
Biden’s run can be generously termed a long shot. He will need to show he can raise money early on in order to be taken seriously by next year. Kerry’s exit from the race should help with that as Biden can now better capitalize on his Boston donors, but his senate fund only has a few million. As a result, Biden will lag behind the top tier in available money. This immediately dumps him in with the peasants at the bottom of the field; fighting for scraps of attention. If Biden wants to become president, he will have to find some way to distinguish himself from the pack and remain viable through the early primaries. This means that he will have to win one of the first four states: Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, or South Carolina. If Biden cannot manage a victory in any of those states, he will quickly be written off, leaving his campaign penniless.
And, From all appearances, it seems that Biden as set his sights on a South Carolina strategy. Like a true politician, Biden has been pandering hard, attempting to woo Southerners with his off-the-cuff racism. A win in SC would give Biden some momentum heading into the likely-definitive February 5th primaries, where huge numbers of delegates will be decided in many states. Sure, Biden is northeasterner who may have little credibility in the South. And, sure, white working class southerners will probably break for Edwards. And, even worse, such southerners have seen their influence in the party steadily drop over the years. Just ask Al Gore circa 1988. But Joe Biden’s America is an America of possibilities. Plus, there is a grassroots groundswell of support for him rising in banks across America (probably has something to do with his unwavering opposition to low-income families).
In short, Biden needs to win South Carolina, place in Iowa or New Hampshire, and pray for miracle. Anything less than that and it’s back to the senate for him by February.