Oscars Update

January 8, 2009

Well, the Writers Guild, Cinematographers, and now the Directors have spoken: it looks like The Dark Knight will be the fifth Best Picture nominee.

I recently added the WGA and ASC to the algorithm in order to try and improve our reliability. This bumped TDK over Wall-E into 5th place. Today the Director’s Guild nominated TDK for best director. The DGA is the best indicator of multiple nominees. The only two data points that are more accurate at predicting best picture nominees are the Broadcast Film Critics Association winner and the winner of the Golden Globe-Drama and both only select one movie (still more reliable than New York Film Critics or LA film critics).

The last two years the DGA has gone 4/5 with best picture and matched the Oscar for best director. However, they’ve historically tracked at better than 4/5, and I would bet that they “regress” towards the mean by going 5/5 this year.

At this point, the only way I’m voting against TDK is if The Reader or Revolutionary Road win the Golden Globe for Best Picture-Drama. This happened last year with Atonement. Atonement did not track well in precursos (BAFTA nom, and a Golden Globe nom; no Directors or Producers Guild), but won the GG-Drama, essentially making it a “lock.” Barring such an upset at the Golden Globes, I think TDK is in.

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