Final Oscar Predictions

January 15, 2009

Well, like the title says, here our final predictions for best picture, post BAFTA, Globes, Editors, and Writers. So far, the more things change, the more things stay the same. While Awards Daily and the LA Times wonder what the BAFTA snub portends for The Dark Knight, we’re inclined to say: nothing. Remember, BAFTA nominated American Gangster last year, and The Last King of Scotland the year before that. They are hardly infallible. Also, the LA Times specifically mentions Atonement as a movie snubbed by the guilds before rebounding, but Atonement won the Golden Globe for Drama last year, something The Reader definitely did not do.

The big movers of these last few weeks were The Reader, because of its BAFTA nom, and Vicky Christina Barcelona, which won the Golden Globe for Best Picture-Comedy and received WGA and ACE noms.

1. Slumdog, 7.89

2. Benjamin Button, 5.55

3. Milk, 5.241

4. Frost/Nixon, 5.09

5. The Dark Knight, 3.655

6. Wall-E, 2.433

7. The Reader, 1.69

8. Vicky Christina Barcelona, 1.52

9. The Wrestler, 1.19

10. Revolutionary Road, 1.009

There’s a big gap between The Dark Knight and Wall-E, with The Reader and Vicky further behind. Now, the fun of this is that something in the top 5 usually drops: Dreamgirls two years ago, and Into the Wild last year. It’s a lot easier to figure out why Into the Wild wasn’t nominated (Atonement leapfrogged it, and Juno slid in as the comedy film) than it is Dreamgirls, which had every indicator in its favor, including noms from the three major guilds (SAG, PGA, DGA). Critical support wasn’t really there (76 on Metacritic), but it wasn’t historically low either.

So, there are two big questions: will a movie fall out of the top 5, and which movie will it be? Really, why does everyone think it has to be The Dark Knight? Read the rest of this entry »